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Chess Analytics & Predictions

Predictive analytics for championship chess

Monte Carlo tournament simulations, interactive scenario building, and AI-powered position complexity analysis.

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Chess Olympiad 2026

Live gold-medal odds from 10,000 simulations, updated after every round in Samarkand.

Open · After round 2

Who wins gold?

10,000 sims
  1. 1
    United States of America32.3%
  2. 2
    India19.5%
  3. 3
    Uzbekistan18.6%
  4. 4
    China10.7%
  5. 5
    Germany6.0%

Explore all 202 teams & build scenarios →

Women's · After round 2

Who wins gold?

10,000 sims
  1. 1
    India33.0%
  2. 2
    Kazakhstan14.9%
  3. 3
    Georgia14.3%
  4. 4
    China13.0%
  5. 5
    United States of America9.0%

Explore all 186 teams & build scenarios →

Board prize race · after round 2

Who leads each board?

All boards →
Open
  1. B13393
  2. B23430
  3. B33131
  4. B43127
  5. Res3382
Women
  1. B13090
  2. B23089
  3. B32939
  4. B42797
  5. Res2819

Individual medals go to the best performance rating on each board with at least 8 games; early leaders shift quickly.

As seen in

The New York TimesNPRThe Japan TimesGulf NewsDeccan Herald

Recent Results

Completed

2026 Candidates Tournament

Winner: Javokhir Sindarov

Determined the challenger for the World Chess Championship, who will face Gukesh D.

8-player double round-robin→
Completed

2026 Women's Candidates Tournament

Winner: Vaishali Rameshbabu

Determined the challenger for the Women's World Chess Championship, who will face Ju Wenjun.

8-player double round-robin→

Tournament Simulations

Over one million Monte Carlo simulations for the Candidates Tournament. Build custom scenarios and watch probabilities shift in real time.

View simulations →

Elocator

AI-powered position complexity analysis. Paste a FEN or PGN to discover how challenging a position is for human players.

Analyze a position →
The New York Times

“Statistical analysis by Pawnalyze showed that Mr. Niemann had consistently outperformed his rating strength to an astonishing degree.”

— “The Chess World Isn't Ready for a Cheating Scandal,” Sept. 2022

NPR

Pawnalyze founder Caleb Wetherell was interviewed on Weekend Edition Saturday about the Niemann–Carlsen cheating controversy and his statistical analysis of Niemann's unprecedented rating rise.

— Weekend Edition Saturday with Scott Simon, Sept. 2022