2026 Candidates Tournament
8-player double round-robinFIDE
The Candidates Tournament determines the challenger for the World Chess Championship, who will face D. Gukesh.
Who will challenge Gukesh for the crown? We ran over one million Monte Carlo simulations of the Candidates Tournament to find out. Use the Scenario Builder to set game outcomes and see how the probabilities shift in real time.
Simulation Results
Scenario Builder
Select game outcomes to simulate custom scenarios
How it works
Monte Carlo Sims
Over 1M simulations using Elo, color advantage, and draw rates.
Scenario Explorer
Lock in results and explore “what if” scenarios.
Live Tracking
Actual results baked in automatically as rounds complete.
For a deeper dive, check out How Our Chess Tournament Predictions Work on the blog.