FIDE Grand Prix Belgrade Knockout Odds
Rapport advances to finals, Giri and Andreikin to tiebreaks
Both classical games today resulted in a draw.
For Rapport, the draw means he will move on the the final round of the KO and has secured 10 Grand Prix points, further solidifying his chances of qualifying into the Candidates. If he loses in the final, he has a 21% chance and if he wins he has a 95% chance of qualifying.
For Giri and Andreikin, they move to rapid tiebreaks (two games, one with each color). If they are still tied they’ll follow the same format for two blitz games and then move into an armageddon. Giri enjoys a significant Elo advantage of 83 points in Rapid (2744 vs 2661). Given that discrepancy, he is the favorite to win and advance to the finals against Rapport. My simulations say that Giri has a 69% chance of eliminating Andreikin and advancing.
While Giri and Andrekin battle tomorrow, Rapport enjoys a rest day which could give him a slight advantage going into the finals.
If you haven’t already, check out the odds for leg 3 in Berlin.
Based on the results of 50,000 simulations, below are odds for winning in Belgrade and odds for candidate qualification for every player for every possible amount of Grand Prix points they could end on.
|Name||Win %||Expected GP Points|
Possibilities for Qualification into Candidates Tournament
Overall odds of qualifying for the Candidates Tournament
|Name||Qualify %||Expected GP Points|