# FIDE Grand Prix Belgrade Knockout Stage What-Ifs

### How the odds change with each result

This post will be quick. No fancy tables or interactivity - just the cold hard numbers! Check out the bracket I built if you want to see some more scenarios.

I ran 1,000 simulations for each scenario. The numbers should be at most 1-2% off, but I’ll run some more robust simulations once the games are over and we will know for sure!

I *think* Andreikin has the white pieces against Giri and Rapport has the white pieces against MVL.

**If Andreikin beats Giri:**

Giri wins semi: 0.221

Andreikin wins semi: 0.779

**If they draw:**

Giri wins semi: 0.694

Andreikin wins semi: 0.306

**If Giri wins:**

Giri wins semi: 0.964

Andreikin wins semi: 0.036

**If Rapport beats MVL:**

Rapport wins semi: 0.855

MVL wins semi: 0.145

**If they draw:**

Rapport wins semi: 0.432

MVL wins semi: 0.568

**If MVL wins:**

Rapport wins semi: 0.066

MVL wins semi: 0.934